Superforecasting Book Summary

In "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," Philip E. Tetlock unveils the secrets behind extraordinary predictors who consistently outsmart average forecasters. Delving into the cognitive techniques and mental habits that empower these super forecasters, he bridges the gap between intuition and data analysis. The book challenges conventional wisdom about forecasting, emphasizing that with the right mindset, anyone can enhance their predictive abilities. Through fascinating case studies and practical insights, Tetlock demonstrates how nuanced thinking and open-mindedness can transform our understanding of future events. Prepare to reshape your approach to uncertainty and discover the science behind becoming a master of predictions.

By Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner

Published: 2015

"Good forecasting is about managing our own beliefs."

Book Review of Superforecasting

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Similar books you might like →

Showing 8 of 30 similar books

Similar Book Recommendations →

James Clear's Book Recommendations

James Clear is the author of the bestselling book Atomic Habits, which focuses on the power of small habits and incremental improvements to achieve significant personal and professional growth. Clear’s writing blends insights from psychology, neuroscience, and productivity to provide practical strategies for building better habits. His work has helped millions of people create positive changes in their lives by focusing on the process rather than the outcome. James’s clear, actionable advice has made him a sought-after speaker and thought leader in the field of personal development.

Self-ImprovementProductivity

Barack Obama's Book Recommendations

Barack Obama is the 44th President of the United States, serving from 2009 to 2017. As the first African American president, Obama’s leadership marked a historic moment in American history. His administration focused on healthcare reform, economic recovery from the Great Recession, and environmental policies. He is best known for the Affordable Care Act, as well as his efforts to expand civil rights and restore diplomatic relations with Cuba. Since leaving office, Obama has continued to engage in public life through his foundation, focusing on leadership development, civic engagement, and global issues.

PoliticsMemoirs and BiographiesSuccess Stories and Life Lessons

Eric Weinstein's Book Recommendations

Eric Weinstein is an accomplished American mathematician, economist, and writer, known for his influential work in the fields of geometric unity and economic theory. As the Managing Director of Thiel Capital, he has significantly impacted the financial and technological sectors. Weinstein is also renowned for his thought-provoking discussions on the podcast "The Portal," where he explores complex scientific and social issues. He has written extensively on a variety of topics, contributing to both academic and popular literature. His unique perspectives and interdisciplinary approach have earned him recognition as a leading intellectual voice of his generation.

Business and LeadershipScience and NatureMindfulnessInspiring Reads

Andrew Wilkinson's Book Recommendations

Andrew Wilkinson is a distinguished author and entrepreneur, best known for his insightful business writings and contributions to the tech industry. He co-founded MetaLab, a prominent design agency that has shaped the user experience of major platforms like Slack and Coinbase. Wilkinson's entrepreneurial journey and his publications provide valuable perspectives on startup culture, innovation, and leadership. His writing, often featured in leading business magazines and his personal blog, has garnered a wide readership for its practical advice and engaging storytelling. Andrew continues to influence both literature and the business world with his unique blend of creativity and strategic thinking.

Business and LeadershipInspiring ReadsCreativity and Innovation

Charlie Munger's Book Recommendations

Charlie Munger is an American investor, businessman, and philanthropist, best known as the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, where he partners with Warren Buffett. Renowned for his insights on investment strategies and mental models, Munger has significantly influenced the world of finance. His notable literary contributions include "Poor Charlie's Almanack," a compilation of his speeches and writings that distill his wisdom on decision-making and business principles. Munger's work emphasizes the importance of multidisciplinary thinking and continuous learning. Beyond his financial acumen, he is celebrated for his charitable efforts, particularly in education and healthcare.

Business and LeadershipMoney MattersInspiring Reads

Mark Zuckerberg's Book Recommendations

Mark Zuckerberg is an American technology entrepreneur best known for co-founding Facebook, the world's largest social media platform, which transformed global communication. Born on May 14, 1984, in White Plains, New York, he launched Facebook in 2004 while attending Harvard University. Under his leadership, Facebook expanded rapidly, influencing the social media landscape and digital advertising. Zuckerberg has also authored numerous articles and essays on technology, innovation, and the future of the internet. His work has had a profound impact on how people connect and share information in the digital age.

Business and LeadershipTechnology and FutureInspiring Reads

Andrew Lokenauth's Book Recommendations

Andrew Lokenauth is a distinguished author and financial expert known for his insightful contributions to personal finance and investment literature. With a career spanning over a decade, he has written extensively on topics such as wealth management, financial planning, and market analysis. Lokenauth's works are celebrated for their clarity and practical advice, making complex financial concepts accessible to a broad audience. He has been featured in numerous financial publications and has established himself as a trusted voice in the industry. Beyond his writing, Lokenauth is also a sought-after speaker, sharing his expertise at various seminars and workshops.

Money MattersSuccess Stories and Life Lessons

Alexis Ohanian's Book Recommendations

Alexis Ohanian is an American entrepreneur, investor, and co-founder of Reddit, one of the world’s most popular social news and discussion platforms. Ohanian is also a prominent advocate for open internet and net neutrality, and he has invested in numerous startups through his venture capital firm, Initialized Capital. In addition to his work in tech, Ohanian is involved in philanthropy, supporting causes related to women’s rights, education, and social justice. He is married to tennis star Serena Williams, and together they advocate for gender equality and inclusive leadership. Ohanian’s influence in the tech world and his commitment to social impact have made him a respected figure in both business and activism.

Business and LeadershipFounders PlaybookActivistWomen Who Lead

Showing 8 of 13 related collections

Good forecasting is about managing our own beliefs.

Superforecasting

By Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner